Is propaganda overshadowing genuine solutions in Nigeria's fight against insecurity? It seems President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration is prioritizing propaganda, a move that echoes the historical mistakes highlighted by the late Harvard Professor Barbara Tuchman in The March of Folly. She pointed out that governments have been making the same mistakes for 3,000 years, stemming from the belief that leaders possess all the answers. But here's where it gets controversial...
Drawing from the wisdom of Dr. Henry Kissinger, we understand that leaders often rely on pre-existing ideas, struggling to adapt to new challenges. As Kissinger noted, "The convictions that leaders have formed before reaching high office are the intellectual capital they will consume as long as they continue in office." This can lead to a dangerous cycle where leaders become entrenched in their existing viewpoints, resisting the need for fresh perspectives.
This very tragedy appears to be unfolding in Nigeria. The Tinubu administration has been criticized for seemingly dismissing criticism and acting as if it is infallible. Even National Security Advisor Mr. Nuhu Ribadu, initially, seemed to embrace this approach. Early in the administration, Ribadu praised the military's efforts, stating that things were improving. He said: "They have done an amazingly good job without talking and I believe that with the support and the resolve of the leadership we have today in our country; things will only be better. We are just four or five months old, but certainly things have changed and we believe that what they are doing, they are doing it right”.
However, the reality paints a different picture. The military leadership Ribadu lauded has been criticized for failing to adequately address the country's security challenges, to the point that the United States government is considering intervention. This raises a crucial question: If the military was so effective, why were the service chiefs recently replaced?
Ribadu based his assessment on the increase in oil production in the Niger Delta region. But, this overlooks the fact that the late President Umaru Yar’Adua's amnesty program for Niger Delta militants also led to a similar rise in oil production.
But what about the victims of terror? Consider the case of Miss Leah Sharibu, kidnapped in 2018 by Boko Haram, who remains in captivity for refusing to renounce her Christian faith. As of May 14, 2025, she turned 22 years old. She was only 14 when she was abducted. Sadly, she is rarely mentioned by the government.
In December 2024, Ribadu claimed significant progress in the fight against insecurity, stating that security agencies achieved an 80% success rate against kidnapping. Yet, the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that kidnappers received approximately N2.2 trillion (or $1.41 billion USD, £1.16 billion pounds) in ransom money between May 2023 and April 2024. This amount exceeds the N1.64 trillion budgeted for defense in 2024. The Terrorism Index in Nigeria increased to 7.66 Points in 2024 from 7.58 Points in 2023.
Kissinger's observation rings true: "High office teaches decision-making, not substance." In the 1970s and 80s, Nigeria, under new leadership, offered genuine leadership to Africa in the anti-apartheid struggle, even challenging the United States. Today, Nigeria struggles to lead.
In the words of the Afro-beat king Fela, Nigeria under President Tinubu is "dey role like one yeye ball wen one yeye wind dey blow put for one yeye corner" – a nation adrift, lacking direction. Do you agree with this assessment? What do you think are the most pressing security challenges facing Nigeria today, and what solutions do you believe are most effective?
